US-Iran escalation and shipping risk: Iran appears more confident in striking US-linked assets across the Middle East, with US officials warning of possible wider attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and on infrastructure, including cyber. Hormuz traffic watch: Maritime data showed Hormuz crossings fell sharply on Aug 31 (five confirmed transits, down 50% day-on-day), keeping flows well below normal. Nuclear threat rhetoric: Trump said the US may hit Iran’s underground “Pickaxe Mountain” “very soon,” while JD Vance reiterated the conflict isn’t a “war” and that Washington won’t talk until Iran stops attacking commercial shipping. Economic pressure via finance: The US sanctioned a Turkish investment bank and two subsidiaries tied to alleged Iran-linked transactions, signaling more weekly secondary sanctions. Gulf defense sales: The US approved about a $5bn package of glide bombs and guidance kits to Saudi Arabia to bolster airborne defenses. Lebanon strikes despite truce: Israeli airstrikes in southern/eastern Lebanon killed at least three and injured 23, including attacks near the Ali al-Taher ridge. Iraq transport/logistics: Iraq reported about $4.5bn from August crude exports, while Baghdad’s “Green Taxi” electric taxi plan is taking shape amid gasoline shortages. Diesel squeeze: Diesel hit record highs in the US, adding pressure to truckers and freight costs—an indirect logistics hit tied to Middle East tensions. Regional note: Qatar rejected Iran’s self-defence claims over attacks on its territory.