Middle East conflict drives surge in spot freight and rate hikes across Europe

European Road Transport Institute Foundation releases Q1 2026 market report based on data provided by the freight exchange and road transport network Trans.eu

WROCłAW, NOT APPLICABLE, POLAND, May 13, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ -- The European Road Transport Institute Foundation has published Key Insights from the Market Q1 2026, a new analytical report examining the major trends shaping European road freight in the first three months of the year.

Based on data provided by Trans.eu, the report identifies a sharp acceleration in spot market activity, a partial recovery in carrier search behaviour, and significant upward rate pressure — all intensified by the ongoing Middle East conflict and its effects on fuel prices.

1. Spot freight offers surge across European corridors

Load offers on key European routes grew substantially throughout Q1 2026, with March delivering the strongest momentum. Western European corridors led the way: the France–Benelux route recorded a year-on-year increase of 102%, while France–Germany (+73%), Germany–Benelux (+71%), and Benelux–France (+72%) also posted exceptional growth. Central European routes followed a similar upward trajectory, with Germany–Poland reaching +43% and Poland–Germany +37% in March.

"What we're seeing is not just a typical post-winter rebound, but a structurally stronger demand environment — and part of this increase reflects a rebalancing between contract and spot markets, particularly where contract rates no longer match current cost realities," said Michał Pakulniewicz, Market Analyst at European Institute of Road Transportation Foundation.

2. Carrier search activity recovers in March after weak start

Carrier search activity remained subdued in January and February, with most corridors recording year-on-year declines consistent with the trend of the past two years. March brought a partial rebound, however, with several Western European routes turning positive. The Spain–France corridor saw the strongest recovery, accelerating to +29% in March after modest growth earlier in the quarter.

The shift reflects carriers being drawn back to platforms by rising rates and increased spot market fragmentation .

3. Freight rates accelerate sharply in March

Freight rates followed a steady upward trend across Q1 2026, but March marked a clear shift in pace. After mostly single-digit increases in January and February, double-digit year-on-year gains became widespread. The Poland–Italy corridor recorded the steepest rise at +14.1%, followed by Benelux–France (+13.6%) and Poland–Germany (+13.5%). The acceleration reflects both direct cost pressure from higher fuel prices and the amplifying effect of the spot market, which transmits cost changes into rates more rapidly than long-term contracts.

Natalia Janiszewska, CEO of European Road Transport Institute Foundation, sees a structural shift in how the market is pricing transport: "When fuel costs spike and contracts stop reflecting what transport actually costs today, freight moves to spot. That's exactly what we saw this quarter — and the spot market is becoming the primary way to price transport in uncertain conditions. That's a shift the whole industry needs to take seriously."


Download the full report, Key Insights from the Market Q1 2026.

About the European Road Transport Institute

The European Road Transport Institute Foundation is an independent research institution focused on the analysis of European road freight markets. The Institute publishes regular market intelligence reports and organises industry events to support informed decision-making across the transport and logistics sector.

About Trans.eu Road Platform:


The Trans.eu Road Platform is Europe's largest transport network and a next-generation freight exchange, instantly connecting over 41,000 verified carriers, shippers, and forwarders. Specializing in international routes, it connects freight and capacity between Western and Eastern Europe in a secure environment. Processing over 9.5 million load offers monthly, the platform offers smart, secure transport execution, mitigating risk with a comprehensive rating system and the SafePay service. Efficiency is enhanced by full end-to-end transport process management

Verónica Rodríguez
Trans.eu Group
vrodriguez@trans.eu
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