AGP Executive Report

Red Sea Security Push: Saudi Arabia is preparing a major offensive against Yemen’s Houthis and, alongside partners, has unveiled a 14-country maritime defense coalition to protect Bab al-Mandeb and Gulf of Aden shipping after Red Sea disruptions. Hormuz Shipping Tensions: Iran says the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and claims it hit two tankers while forcing four others to turn back; the U.S. disputes Iran’s claims and says commercial traffic is being managed. Damietta Port Disruption: Egypt says a drone caused a fire at Damietta, damaging two vessels including an LNG-related facility, and is investigating the origin as regional conflict fears rise for Suez-linked energy flows. Sanctions & Air Cargo Fallout: The U.S. imposed new sanctions tied to Iran-linked networks supporting Mahan Air, while Amadeus reported improving air bookings after the Middle East conflict hit travel tech results. Aviation Connectivity: The UAE and Egypt agreed to broaden air traffic rights over five years, aiming to boost passenger and belly-hold cargo capacity. IMF Support for Egypt: The IMF completed reviews unlocking about $1.8bn for Egypt, citing resilience to war spillovers—though vulnerabilities remain. Trade/Logistics Corridor: Iraq and Iran are planning a railway link via Kermanshah to connect to the Gulf and beyond, targeting higher freight and passenger volumes.

Maritime Security: Strait of Hormuz traffic is rebounding with U.S. escorts helping about 6.5 million barrels/day move, but volumes are still far below pre-conflict levels and some tankers are reportedly “dark” with missing identification. Egypt Port Disruption: Egypt says it’s analyzing drone fragments after a strike at Damietta Port sparked fires on gas vessels, with officials warning against speculation even as Iran and others trade “false flag” accusations; the incident raises fresh concerns for Suez-linked shipping. Regional Escalation: The U.S. and Iran traded missile barrages as fighting spreads across borders, with Pakistan insisting talks are still ongoing while attacks continue. Red Sea Response: Saudi Arabia pushed ahead with a multinational maritime defense coalition for Bab al-Mandeb, Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, bringing together 14 founding countries and planning a framework to protect freedom of navigation. Sanctions Pressure: The U.S. Treasury sanctioned networks tied to Iran’s Mahan Air and IRGC support, targeting logistics and maritime “extortion” schemes tied to Hormuz transit.

US-Iran Escalation: The U.S. resumed a “heavy wave” of strikes on Iran after an alleged missile attack on American forces in Jordan, while Iran and IRGC-linked claims point to continued retaliation risk across the region. Aviation Disruption: Airlines extended Middle East flight suspensions and rerouted around Iran/Iraq/Israel airspace as strikes and drone threats return. Maritime Security at Damietta: Egypt’s cabinet confirmed a drone caused a fire on two gas vessels at Damietta port (Energos Winter and GasLog Salem), with operations continuing and no casualties reported—raising fresh Suez Canal navigation fears. Hormuz Shipping Pressure: Iran reiterated control over the Strait of Hormuz and warned it won’t reopen under US threats; meanwhile, US Treasury sanctions targeted an “extortion” network involving insurers and tankers tied to Hormuz transit. Logistics & Trade: Gulf states are reportedly looking to China for leverage to reopen Hormuz and Red Sea routes, while shipping traffic shows continued movement despite dark/identity-manipulated transits. Regional Transport Policy: Armenia’s PM said the railway is sovereign property and any disputes may go to arbitration, while Iraq-Türkiye energy talks aim to keep pipeline oil flows running during renewal negotiations. Business/Shipping Earnings: Diana Shipping reported a strong Q2 profit jump, citing higher charter rates amid conflict-driven market volatility.

Iran–US Escalation: Iran fired missiles at U.S. forces in the Middle East as the U.S. and Saudi Arabia struck Iran-backed militias in Iraq, killing at least 20 fighters and six Iranian advisers, with fears the brief lull is over. Iraq Sovereignty Row: Baghdad condemned the U.S.-Saudi airstrikes on Popular Mobilisation Forces sites and warned Iraq should not be used to “settle scores,” while Iran-linked factions urged Baghdad to review U.S. deals. Hormuz Pressure on Shipping: CENTCOM said it redirected 20 commercial vessels since resuming the Iran port blockade, while the U.S. Treasury imposed fresh sanctions on insurers and tankers tied to Iran’s “Strait of Hormuz” monetisation scheme, including digital-payments claims. Damietta Port Disruption: A drone strike hit a U.S.-owned LNG storage tanker at Egypt’s Damietta port, triggering a fire that spread to another vessel; Egypt reported no casualties and said emergency teams responded. Red Sea Coalition Push: Saudi Arabia is seeking an international “coalition of the willing” to protect Red Sea shipping from Houthis, as the Houthis consider fees for Bab el-Mandeb transits—adding another layer of risk to global logistics. Markets & Routing: Oil prices swung higher on renewed conflict risk, while shipping data showed continued leakage of tankers out of the region via alternative routes.

Iran–US escalation and air-defense buys: Reuters reports Iran expects deliveries within weeks of up to 400 Chinese shoulder-fired MANPADS (QW-12/FN-16) in a $60m–$70m deal, as Tehran rebuilds short-range defenses after strikes exposed vulnerabilities. US–Saudi strikes in Iraq: CENTCOM says US and Saudi forces hit IRGC-directed targets in eastern Iraq after 30+ drone attacks on Saudi oil sites; PMF says at least 20 were killed and 32 wounded. Jordan targeted: Jordanian air defenses intercepted five missiles launched from Iran, hours after the US said it stopped an Iranian missile barrage. Hormuz and shipping pressure: Iran rejects Oman’s proposal for joint Strait of Hormuz management; Reuters also says Iran discussed with Houthis the idea of charging transit fees at Bab el-Mandeb, potentially adding new friction to already disrupted routes. Oil and logistics impact: Oil jumped ~5% as renewed strikes raised supply fears; S&P Global says vessel traffic through Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz stayed broadly stable, but risk remains. Regional transport deal: Turkey and Iraq signed five agreements, including transport cooperation, and discussed a plan for up to 1 million barrels/day of oil supply. Industry hit: SABIC reported a narrower quarterly loss but revenue down 18%, citing war-related supply-chain disruptions tied to Hormuz disruptions.

US–Saudi Strikes in Iraq: CENTCOM says US and Saudi forces carried out joint precision strikes on July 28 against Iran-aligned groups in eastern Iraq, targeting logistics and weapons sites after more than 30 IRGC-directed drone attacks over 72 hours. Ballistic Missile Alert: CENTCOM also said Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles at US forces in the Middle East; all were intercepted, ending a brief lull and raising renewed risk for regional transport corridors. Hormuz Fees Clash: Oman’s Gulf-backed proposal for voluntary fees and a managed Strait of Hormuz is being rejected by Iran, which says it will block vessels tied to compensation from frozen Iranian assets—keeping shipping uncertainty high. Red Sea Disruptions: Houthis claimed a ballistic-missile attack on a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea after imposing a blockade, while UKMTO reported an explosion near Saudi waters with no damage reported. Iraq–Türkiye Energy/Transport Moves: Türkiye says it may receive up to 1 million bpd from Iraq after a Kirkuk stake deal, as Iraq and Türkiye push wider security and transport cooperation.

Strait of Hormuz Talks: Oman has put forward a Gulf-backed plan for a regional mechanism to manage the Strait of Hormuz, including voluntary fees, aiming to restore safe, uninterrupted shipping after the US-Iran war disrupted passage; Iran says it wants shared control with Oman and service charges, while Washington pushes for a return to pre-war free transit. Oil & Shipping Impact: Oil prices slid as the pause in US-Iran fighting and Hormuz hopes eased supply fears, while shipping patterns stayed uneven—Hormuz traffic remained subdued and Red Sea disruptions lingered. Red Sea Pressure: Houthi actions tied to Saudi oil facilities kept Bab el-Mandeb traffic under strain, with reports of a sharp drop in vessel movement after embargo claims. Iraq–Türkiye Energy Route: Iraq’s new prime minister, Ali al-Zaidi, met Turkey’s leadership to discuss pipeline and security plans to reduce Gulf export exposure, with talks also covering trade, transport and water management. Rail Connectivity: Turkey began restoring the Akyaka–Gyumri railway section and prepared for border checkpoint and road works, signaling renewed regional logistics links. Caspian Sea Flashpoint: Russia said a Ukrainian attack on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian should be treated as an assault on Iran, underscoring how maritime incidents are feeding wider transport risk.

US-Iran Pause & Shipping Risk: Trump said the US is holding off on strikes to give “very deep” talks another chance, but warned action will resume if diplomacy fails; Iran denies direct negotiations while mediators pass messages, and both sides’ restraint is still fragile. Hormuz Disruptions: Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya warned the US against threatening Iranian vessels and said it will not leave threats unanswered, while IRGC naval forces reportedly turned back six vessels using unapproved routes—keeping Strait of Hormuz management a live logistics headache. Red Sea Escalation: Yemen’s foreign minister-designate said the Houthis want to copy Iran’s Hormuz approach by controlling shipping through Bab al-Mandeb, with Red Sea traffic already down and drone/missile attacks targeting Saudi oil and transport infrastructure. Energy Markets: Oil fell about 1% as investors weighed the strike pause, but analysts stressed conditions remain highly fluid, with chokepoint uncertainty still driving freight and fuel costs. Industry Impact: Saipem cut its 2026 earnings guidance citing added Middle East crisis costs and logistics disruption, underscoring how conflict risk is hitting contractors and supply chains.

Strait of Hormuz Control: Iran’s IRGC Navy stopped six vessels trying to transit via unapproved routes, warning shots were used and ships were turned back, as Tehran insists the strait remains closed and only Iran-designated channels are safe. Red Sea Disruption: Bab el-Mandeb traffic is down sharply after Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, with Kpler data showing only 11 commodity ships crossing on Sunday and some tankers rerouting via Suez and around the Cape, adding about 30 days. US-Iran Pause & Logistics Risk: The US temporarily suspended airstrikes near Hormuz after advice from CENTCOM, while Iran says it will defend its interests and is not seeking direct talks; mediators report progress via Qatar and Pakistan, but shipping uncertainty remains. Saudi Air Defense: Saudi Arabia intercepted drones targeting oil facilities, blaming Iran-backed militias operating from Iraqi territory. Aviation & Trade Links: Saudia Cargo launched a Riyadh–Melbourne freighter route to boost Middle East–Australia trade, while Egypt explored a DP World partnership to expand exports into African markets. Maritime Security Alerts: India warned the Strait of Hormuz is “critical” after 12 attacks since early July and urged non-essential transit to be reconsidered. Iraq Energy Routes: Iraq is pushing to increase oil exports through Turkey’s Ceyhan as security and chokepoint risks squeeze shipments.

Strait of Hormuz & Red Sea Disruption: Shipping remains badly affected as the US and Iran pause strikes, but traffic is still “frozen”/low: fewer than 10 commodity vessels are passing daily through Hormuz, while Bab el-Mandeb traffic fell to the lowest level in months after Houthi attacks on Saudi oil installations. Maritime Safety & Risks: Iran-linked reports say a tanker struck a mine and exploded in Hormuz, underscoring how unpredictable hazards are even as talks with Oman progress. Energy Markets: Oil slid about 5% as the pause eased immediate supply fears; Brent dipped toward the low-$90s, while markets watched whether the ceasefire holds. Regional Diplomacy: Iran says it’s exchanging messages with the US but negotiations lack conditions, while the US says it’s giving talks “some space.” Local Transport/Logistics: Qatar and Saudi Arabia pushed trade and logistics cooperation, focusing on customs and smoother movement of goods. Road Disruption (Iran): A roadside bomb damaged the Zahedan–Khash road, closing part of the route and slowing traffic. Policy Spillover: Korea’s Lee keeps oil price caps to protect domestic costs, and Japan’s services inflation rose with transport costs climbing due to Middle East freight disruptions.

Hormuz De-escalation Talks: The US paused airstrikes on Iran for a second consecutive night, while Iran and Oman reported progress on safe passage mechanisms for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping traffic status unchanged. Maritime Enforcement: Despite the air pause, CENTCOM said the US naval blockade remains fully in effect, with 12 commercial vessels redirected and tankers disabled/boarded in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea. Shipping Risk Spike: Tanker traffic through Hormuz slowed sharply and oil prices pushed above $100 as attacks and rerouting fears intensified. Red Sea Pressure: Yemen’s Houthis claimed missile attacks on Saudi oil installations, while Kuwait condemned repeated Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping as violations of international law. Caspian Sea Tensions: Iran accused Ukraine of attacking an Iranian commercial ship in the Caspian Sea, killing one sailor and injuring others, as Ukraine said it hit vessels tied to Iran-linked military cargo. Transport Infrastructure Fallout: Iran’s President Pezeshkian called US strikes on transport infrastructure “war crimes” and ordered reconstruction and alternative routing for ports, rail, highways and border terminals. Regional Logistics Moves: Syria advanced a major highway rehabilitation plan to boost domestic and cross-border freight, including key corridors linking to Jordan, Türkiye, Iraq and the Gulf.

Strait of Hormuz Crackdown: US CENTCOM says its naval blockade on Iran remains in full effect, redirecting 12 commercial vessels and disabling two that ignored warnings, while boarding two more to enforce compliance—keeping pressure on one of the world’s key oil corridors. US-Iran De-escalation Signals: After nearly two weeks of intensifying airstrikes, the US paused attacks on Iran as diplomacy reportedly advanced, but officials warn the pause could end quickly if talks fail. Red Sea Escalation: Houthis hit Saudi oil installations along the Red Sea coast (Yanbu and Jizan), as Saudi airstrikes continue against Houthi targets in Yemen—raising fresh risks for Bab el-Mandeb shipping. Caspian Sea Shipping Fallout: Iran summoned Ukraine’s diplomats after Kyiv-linked strikes on an Iranian commercial ship in the Caspian Sea killed a sailor and injured another; Iran urged EU and UN action. Road Safety Tragedy (Syria): Two buses collided on the Deir Az Zor–Damascus road, killing 35 and injuring 30, with officials blaming years of neglected infrastructure. Regional Logistics Push (Turkmenistan): Turkmenistan plans an International trade logistics center and a new UN-backed transport corridor linking South/Central Asia to Europe via the Caspian.

Strait of Hormuz & Red Sea Disruptions: Iran said it had a “peaceful night” with no new U.S. strikes, while sirens sounded in Saudi oil hubs Yanbu and Jizan; meanwhile, the Houthis claimed missile/drone attacks on Saudi Arabia and warned of retaliation after strikes on Hodeida, keeping Red Sea shipping risk elevated. Maritime Safety & Shipping: Iran’s ambassador said all 28 Indian crew on a Mozambique-flagged LPG tanker were safely rescued after an attack in Iranian waters, with Iran warning against “extra-regional” naval involvement. U.S.-Iran Escalation: The U.S. fired on and disabled merchant vessels trying to breach Iran-related port blockades, as traffic reportedly thinned and insurers stayed nervous. Ukraine-Russia-Caspian Logistics: Zelensky confirmed long-range strikes in the Caspian Sea hitting a Russian warship and vessels tied to Iran-linked military cargo, alongside attacks on Russian logistics and energy infrastructure. Road Transport Tragedy (Syria): Two buses collided on the Deir ez-Zor–Damascus highway (“Road of Death”), killing 35 and injuring 30; helicopters evacuated victims and an investigation is underway. Aviation/Passenger Flows: Beond plans to expand premium European routes to Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea resort airport, aiming to boost inbound tourism connectivity.

Public Transport Connectivity: Abu Dhabi launched two direct bus routes linking the capital’s bus network to the Etihad Rail station, cutting commutes to about 47–50 minutes and running daily schedules for riders. Maritime Security Escalation: The EU’s ASPIDES raised the Red Sea threat level to high after Houthi attacks on Saudi shipping, warning of risks from missiles, drones and small craft around Bab al-Mandeb. Strait of Hormuz Disruption: The UN says thousands of sailors are stranded on roughly 400 ships in the Strait of Hormuz as US-Iran strikes and shipping restrictions keep crews stuck without supplies. US-Iran Naval Pressure: US forces disabled another merchant vessel trying to breach the blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran retaliated with drone strikes targeting US-linked assets across the Gulf. Red Sea Shipping Retaliation: Saudi Arabia struck Yemen’s Hodeidah after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers, as the Houthis push a maritime blockade that further complicates tanker logistics. Energy Price Shock: Oil slid below $100 on hopes of renewed talks, but analysts warn shipping disruptions could keep prices elevated and keep fuel costs volatile across the region. Diplomacy Attempts: Pakistan is exploring a China-backed path to restart stalled US-Iran talks, even as strikes continue.

US-Iran Shipping Clash: The US wrapped up its 13th straight night of strikes on Iran, aimed at degrading threats to commercial vessels around the Strait of Hormuz, as Bahrain sirens sounded and drones hit northern Iraq near the US base in Erbil. Red Sea Spillover: Iran-backed Houthis claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers at Bab el-Mandeb, adding pressure to an already strained Red Sea route and pushing oil above $100. Hormuz Cost Fight: Trump said frozen Iranian funds under US control will pay for ship and cargo damage; Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi called it an “incendiary precedent.” Regional Risk to Logistics: Iran’s IRGC warned civilians to stay 500m away from sites hosting US troops and accused the US of targeting civilian infrastructure, including rail and ports. Trade & Transport Policy: US tariffs (10%-12.5%) hit Gulf partners including Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman, raising broader logistics cost pressure. Aviation Fuel Supply Workaround: Southwest chartered a ship to move 12.6M gallons of jet fuel from Texas to California during the spring crunch, citing Hormuz-linked disruptions. Cross-border Rail/Road Deals: Iraq and Iran signed four cooperation documents in Tehran, including road freight and a Khosravi-Khanaqin-Baghdad railway. Maritime Rules: The IMO rejected proposals to charge fees for Hormuz safe passage, saying they don’t fit international law.

Red Sea Shipping Shock: Houthis claimed missile/drone attacks on two Saudi oil tankers, threatening a second chokepoint as the US continues strikes on Iran; Energy Markets: Brent surged above $100 a barrel on renewed Hormuz-to-Red Sea disruption fears, with gas prices also rising; US-Iran Escalation: CENTCOM said it launched its 13th consecutive night of strikes aimed at reducing threats to commercial shipping, while Iran reported explosions near Qeshm and other southern sites; Strait-of-Hormuz Pressure: Trump warned that any damage to ships or cargo will be paid from frozen Iranian funds held by the US, tightening the risk calculus for carriers; Maritime Security Fallout: Kuwait reported intercepts of “hostile Iranian drone threats” and drone targeting of the Abdali border crossing, underscoring logistics vulnerability around key routes; Policy & Trade Links: Iraq and Syria signed an MoU for an 800-km oil pipeline to the Mediterranean (Haditha to Baniyas), pushing an export corridor beyond contested seas.